Quick answer first. It isn’t La Niña this winter. It’s El Niño, and it’s a big one.
Last winter, La Niña was in charge. This year, the Pacific has flipped. Here’s what that likely means for Texas.
La Niña vs. El Niño in Plain English
Both are swings in Pacific Ocean temperatures. El Niño is the warm phase. La Niña is the cool phase.
These swings nudge the jet stream, and Texas sits right in its path.
La Niña usually shoves the storm track north of us. That means less rain. Researchers say it was likely the main driver of the long drought in Texas and southwest Oklahoma, though not the only one.
El Niño does the opposite. It strengthens the southern jet stream. That usually means more storms, more moisture, and cooler weather across the southern tier.
How Strong Is This El Niño?
Very strong. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center put the odds of a very strong event at better than 90% back in August. In mid-October, the weekly Niño 3.4 reading hit about +3.3°C. That’s well past the “very strong” line.
Columbia University’s IRI says all 27 models in its October ensemble call for a very strong El Niño through winter. NOAA also expects it to last into early spring 2027.
What NOAA’s Winter Outlook Says
NOAA released its 2026-27 winter outlook on October 16. It favors wetter-than-average conditions across the Southwest, the South, and the East Coast. Much of Texas falls in that wet zone.
The strongest warm signals sit well north and east of us. NOAA’s Ken Graham said a very strong El Niño tilts the odds toward stormier weather in the South.
NOAA’s drought expert for the Southern Plains, Joel Lisonbee, says the average El Niño brings Texas a cooler, wetter winter. He also says every El Niño is different, and this one looks very different.
Will It Break the Drought?
Maybe. Not guaranteed.
The last very strong El Niño hit in 2015-16. According to the National Integrated Drought Information System, it ended the 2010-2015 drought. It also caused localized flooding.
Lisonbee expects this one to make big improvements to the long-term drought. His advice is simple. Prepare for a wetter winter, but keep a backup plan in case Mother Nature has other ideas.
There’s a catch, too. Years of rain deficit can be too big to erase in one season. Some reservoirs and aquifers may recover. Others may not.
The Flip Side: Floods
A wet winter sounds great after years of drought. But heavy rain on dry, hard ground runs off fast. NOAA itself warns about flash floods and mudslides in drought areas.
Repeated storms can add up. So can tropical moisture left over from the fall. Low spots and creek crossings deserve respect.
After years of dry weather, a few big storms can turn a quiet creek bed into a torrent overnight. Learn your local flood risk before the first big rain arrives, not after.
What About Freezes and Ice?
El Niño doesn’t mean a mild winter. It means more moisture on tap.
A seasonal outlook can’t predict a single storm. Cold air plus moisture is the recipe for ice. So a cooler, wetter winter still deserves a plan for cold snaps.
Remember last January. Governor Abbott declared disasters in more than half of Texas counties ahead of a major winter storm. It was a La Niña winter, and it still tested the grid.
What About the Almanacs?
They disagree. The Old Farmer’s Almanac calls for a warmer, drier Texas winter. The Farmers’ Almanac says stormy, with elevated flood and severe weather risks.
I’ll take NOAA and a few dozen ocean models over a 200-year-old woo-woo formula. Your mileage may vary.
How to Get Ready Now
None of this is hard. Most of it takes an afternoon.
- Clean your gutters and clear your drainage paths.
- Check your flood coverage. Policies often have a 30-day waiting period.
- Insulate exposed pipes and know where your water shutoff is.
- Stock water, food, flashlights, and batteries.
- Plan for a power outage, even a short one.
- Never drive through flooded roads. Turn around.
- Check on older neighbors before a cold snap.
The Bottom Line
La Niña is gone. A very strong El Niño is here. For most of Texas, that tilts the odds toward a wetter, cooler winter.
That’s good news for drought. It’s also a reason to prep for flooding and ice.
Watch your local National Weather Service forecast as each storm gets close. Seasonal outlooks set the odds. The forecast for the next few days sets the plan.
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